Demeter Almond Season Index

DASI tracks almond growing conditions in California. The index is calculated from the conditions that have been experienced from the start of the season up to the date of publication.

It shows how conditions in a given year relate both to other crop years and to the long-term average. A DASI of 100 means that up to that point in the season, conditions have been in line with the long-term average when taken together. A higher number indicates more favourable conditions.

Conditions factored into DASI's phenological model include winter chill accumulation, bloom conditions and frost events, rate of temperature accumulation and disease pressure indicators, among others.

Note that a similar DASI value at a similar stage in the season does not necessarily mean conditions were exactly similar up to that point. One year may have had a poor winter and a strong bloom, another a strong winter and an average bloom, and arrive at similar index values. The relative importance of different factors is captured in DASI's model weightings. You can view the methodology here.

DASI runs from 15th September in one calendar year to 14th September the following calendar year.

DASI reflects conditions experienced up to seven days prior to its publication.

DASI uses a relative scale, with a static 10-year average as its baseline.

This means that a value of 100 indicates "in line with historic averages up to this point". A value of 110 indicates "above historic averages up to this point". DASI typically fluctuates in a range between 60–140.

The scale allows direct comparison between different crop years. An equivalent value for two different years indicates that their growing conditions should produce similar outcomes, although the specific conditions experienced may have been different.

As it uses a relative scale, DASI should not be used to directly "read across" to an anticipated yield value or crop quality measure. It is designed to measure conditions relative to other years and relative to long-term averages.

Yes. DASI's methodology is available to review here.

DASI is constructed bottom-up using data from government bodies, intergovernmental organisations and Demeter's proprietary resources. It combines both crop spatial mapping and meteorological data.

DASI itself is positively correlated with almond yield, since it encapsulates the agronomic variables most important for determining crop outcomes and encodes them through a phenological model.

Its predictive power increases significantly when multiple years of DASI are combined, reflecting the lasting impact of historical conditions on a permanent tree crop.

Please note that DASI does not incorporate information on water availability, age of bearing acreage or management factors, all of which can have large impacts on production.

If you would like to discuss how DASI can support statewide and county-level yield estimates, please arrange to speak to a member of the Demeter index team here.

DASI is constructed from hourly data and is available to Demeter's subscribers on a daily basis. The Demeter platform provides access in tabular and graph format at a wide range of regional granularities and timescales.

The headline DASI is made available publicly every two weeks, on Mondays at 4am PST. This publication is delivered free of charge by email (registration here), and released simultaneously on this page.

Biweekly headline publications include limited commentary on the major factors moving the index since its last publication. Demeter's subscribers have access to more detailed parsing of the index's movements via the Demeter platform.

DASI is a cumulative index that encodes all growing conditions experienced by the Californian almond sector from the start of a given season, and so it tends to become less volatile as the season progresses. Significant volatility may be experienced around bloom time as frost events are encoded in the index.

The index is constructed bottom-up from the orchard level, and is available to Demeter's subscribers at extremely high granularity.

In addition to headline statewide and macro-regional publications, Demeter releases DASI at the level of counties, irrigation districts and GSAs to subscribers. Further customisation options are available on the Demeter platform to track DASI for a given asset portfolio or sourcing footprint.

Our public releases include a 10-year comparison. The DASI is available to subscribers at daily frequency for the past 25 years.

The DASI currently covers only California, which accounts for almost 80% of global production. It is anticipated that subsequent indices will offer coverage of the almond sector in Australia and the Iberian Peninsula.

DASI is not a yield estimate, although it may serve as a valuable input to one. DASI should be viewed as complementary to other data sources, not as a replacement for them.

DASI is derived from streaming data with near-universal coverage and is therefore available to subscribers on a continuous basis via the Demeter platform, with headline public releases every two weeks. The USDA's estimates generally employ a survey methodology, and are released at two distinct points of the year.

For questions regarding integration of DASI into other products, please contact Demeter's index team.