[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":145},["ShallowReactive",2],{"page-\u002Fforecasts":3,"forecasts-catalogue":82},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"description":70,"extension":71,"meta":72,"navigation":73,"path":74,"seo":75,"stem":80,"__hash__":81},"content\u002Fforecasts.md","Demeter | Forecasts",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":67},"minimark",[9,24,28,31,35,37,45,47,51,53,57,59],[10,11,16],"hero-module",{"eyebrow":12,"headline":13,"subhead":14,"data-editable-base":15},"Production Forecasts","Production forecasts across crops, regions and marketing years.","Demeter publishes production forecasts with weekly updates, calibrated uncertainty bands that evolve through the season, and a decade of forecast backtests.","c:content\u002Fforecasts.md#hero-module@0",[17,18,20],"template",{"v-slot:cta":19},"",[21,22],"forecasts-meta-tags",{"data-editable-base":23},"c:content\u002Fforecasts.md#forecasts-meta-tags@0",[25,26],"forecast-explorer-module",{"data-editable-base":27},"c:content\u002Fforecasts.md#forecast-explorer-module@0",[29,30],"common-divider",{},[32,33],"forecast-card-grid-module",{"data-editable-base":34},"c:content\u002Fforecasts.md#forecast-card-grid-module@0",[29,36],{},[38,39],"indices-methodology-tiles-module",{":tiles":40,"count":41,"lede":42,"title":43,"data-editable-base":44},"[{\"icon\":\"ingest\",\"heading\":\"Build the orchard base\",\"copy\":\"Map every orchard with location, area, age and production class, including historical footprint and in-season removals.\"},{\"icon\":\"weight\",\"heading\":\"Model growing conditions\",\"copy\":\"Combine orchard-level baselines with observed growing conditions, including the Demeter Growing Season Indices, and calibrate on historical outcomes.\"},{\"icon\":\"publish\",\"heading\":\"Validate & publish\",\"copy\":\"Validate the model with independent signals (including ground stations, crop health and partner inputs), assign a range, and publish point-in-time updates.\"}]","METHODOLOGY","Forecasts are produced bottom-up from orchard-level data, observed growing conditions and independent checks before publication.","How forecasts are built","c:content\u002Fforecasts.md#indices-methodology-tiles-module@0",[29,46],{},[48,49],"forecast-schedule-table-module",{"data-editable-base":50},"c:content\u002Fforecasts.md#forecast-schedule-table-module@0",[29,52],{},[54,55],"forecast-downloads-cta-module",{"data-editable-base":56},"c:content\u002Fforecasts.md#forecast-downloads-cta-module@0",[29,58],{},[60,61,63],"common-disclaimer-module",{"data-editable-base":62},"c:content\u002Fforecasts.md#common-disclaimer-module@0",[64,65,66],"p",{},"Demeter publishes indices and forecasts for reference and research purposes. It is not an authorised benchmark administrator under UK BMR, does not administer a regulated benchmark, and does not offer, recommend, or arrange financial products. The hedging workbench is for illustration; it produces no quotes or offers. Contracts are written by independent risk partners, with whom buyers contract directly.",{"title":19,"searchDepth":68,"depth":68,"links":69},2,[],"Demeter publishes weekly crop production forecasts.","md",{},true,"\u002Fforecasts",{"meta":76,"title":5,"description":70},[77],{"name":78,"content":79},"keywords","demeter, demeter data, agriculture data, yield forecast, agtech, Demeter | Forecasts,","forecasts","VhovOqKDHxSJFCWtzT8-6tvya8G19_anPoAMKDKhGuY",{"count":83,"basis":84,"forecasts":85},3,"`latest_value` and `completed_value` are the figure that STANDS for each season, and `latest_kind` \u002F `completed_kind` say what that figure is: 'agreed' = published by Demeter and served as published, 'live'\u002F'replay' = today's model print, which nobody has published. A published year-on-year compares the current forecast against the AGENCY ACTUAL (`completed_actual`) and never against our own prior print (`completed_value`); `latest_yoy_pct` is that comparison, already computed. The model print for a published season is at \u002F{code}?basis=model.",[86,116,134],{"code":87,"version":88,"name":89,"unit":90,"frequency":91,"target_year":92,"latest_value":93,"lo":94,"hi":95,"as_of":96,"data_through":97,"latest_kind":98,"latest_basis":99,"latest_published_date":100,"latest_secondary_unit":97,"completed_target_year":101,"completed_value":102,"completed_lo":103,"completed_hi":104,"completed_as_of":105,"completed_kind":106,"completed_actual":107,"completed_actual_source":108,"completed_actual_year":101,"latest_yoy_pct":109,"completed_version":88,"weekly_as_of":110,"weekly_value":111,"weekly_lo":112,"weekly_hi":113,"nowcast_target_year":92,"nowcast_report_month":114,"nowcast_value":115},"FC-ALM-CA","v2","California almond production","billion lb","daily",2026,2.694,2.602,2.785,"2026-09-16",null,"agreed","the figure Demeter published for this season and stands behind, served as published — not today's model print, which is reachable at ?basis=model and may differ from it in value, in band, and in the basis a secondary value is quoted on","2026-09-21",2025,2.7112396,2.7032342,2.719245,"2026-04-30","replay",2.715,"USDA NASS",-0.77,"2026-10-12",2.6938808,2.6024432,2.7853184,"2026-08",2.6934385,{"code":117,"version":118,"name":119,"unit":120,"frequency":91,"target_year":121,"latest_value":122,"lo":123,"hi":124,"as_of":125,"data_through":126,"latest_kind":127,"latest_basis":128,"latest_published_date":97,"latest_secondary_unit":97,"completed_target_year":92,"completed_value":129,"completed_lo":130,"completed_hi":131,"completed_as_of":132,"completed_kind":98,"completed_actual":97,"completed_actual_source":97,"completed_actual_year":97,"latest_yoy_pct":97,"completed_version":118,"weekly_as_of":133,"weekly_value":122,"weekly_lo":123,"weekly_hi":124,"nowcast_target_year":97,"nowcast_report_month":97,"nowcast_value":97},"FC-ALM-ES","v1","Spain almond production","kt in-shell",2027,578.3484,497.58353,659.1132,"2026-10-16","2026-10-10","live","today's model print; nothing has been published for this season, or ?basis=model was asked for",573.5,523.663,623.337,"2026-09-28","2026-10-13",{"code":135,"version":136,"name":137,"unit":120,"frequency":91,"target_year":121,"latest_value":138,"lo":139,"hi":140,"as_of":125,"data_through":126,"latest_kind":127,"latest_basis":128,"latest_published_date":97,"latest_secondary_unit":97,"completed_target_year":92,"completed_value":141,"completed_lo":142,"completed_hi":143,"completed_as_of":144,"completed_kind":98,"completed_actual":97,"completed_actual_source":97,"completed_actual_year":97,"latest_yoy_pct":97,"completed_version":88,"weekly_as_of":133,"weekly_value":138,"weekly_lo":139,"weekly_hi":140,"nowcast_target_year":97,"nowcast_report_month":97,"nowcast_value":97},"FC-ALM-PT","v3","Portugal almond production",116.854904,99.70956,134.00024,114.9,102.9,126.9,"2026-09-11",1792163052511]